Working to keep the West special

Emissions Determine Extent of Disruption

California is not part of the Rocky Mountain region, but a recent study of likely climate-change impacts in that state predicted effects similar to those we may get here--and also illustrated how the severity of the impacts likely will depend on what actions we take to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change.

The study, by 19 scientists, looked at likely climate-change impacts using two different climate models and, for each

 

model, two different assumptions about the level of future greenhouse gases: a lower-emission scenario if aggressive actions are taken to reduce emissions worldwide, and a higher emission scenario if emissions are allowed to increase in a business-as-usual fashion.

Under both models, climate change is predicted to have significant impacts, but the degree of the impacts depends on what we do to protect our climate.

Predicted Effects in California in 2070-2099

Parallel Climate Model
(National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy)

  Lower Emissions Higher Emissions

Changes in Temperature

+4° F
+7° F

Changes in Precipitation

+7%
-17%
Changes in Snowpack
-29%
-73%

Changes in River Flows

-7%
-14%
 
Hadley Climate Center Model
  Lower Emissions Higher Emissions
Changes in Temperature
+6°F
+10°F
Changes in Precipitation
-22%
-30%
Changes in Snowpack
-72%
-89%

Changes in River Flows

-23%
-33%
Source: Hayhoe and others, "Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California," in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2004)

"The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially
on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose."

Katharine Hayhoe  
Lead author, California study

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