News on Climate Disruption, page 2 |
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WaterResearch says climate change already drying out Southwest, Associated Press, August 24, 2008. A University of Arizona researcher finds evidence that human-caused climate change has already caused a northward shift in the jet stream, making the region's late winter and early spring drier. Future Snowmelt In West Twice As Early As Expected; Threatens Ecosystems And Water Reserves, Science Daily, July 16, 2008. P urdue University researchers discover that a critical surface temperature feedback is twice as strong as what had been projected by earlier studies. In addition to losing the reflectiveness of snow when it melts, a feedback loop is created when the soil heats up, and subsequently makes it more difficult for snow to accumulate, perpetuating the effect. Governor declares drought in California and Water-starved California slows development , New York Times, June 5/7, 2008. Things are way worse in California where the driest spring in 88 years leads to a statewide drought declaration and housing development approvals are delayed or denied due to lack of proven future water supplies. Drying of the West, National Geographic, February, 2008. An in-depth look at the historical record of drought in the Colorado River basin, the additional impacts expected from climate change, and some of the solutions being explored. Colorado River to drop to 500-year low as world warms, Bloomburg News, April 17, 2008. A USGS study combining tree-ring records from 1490 – 1998 with climate change models projects a 1.5°F increase in the 21st century could reduce the average flow of the river by 8%, the low end of the 500-year historic record. A 3.6° F rise (more in line with the mid-range of climate projections) could reduce flows by 17%, pushing the average flow in the Colorado lower than any time during the 500- year period. An IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and Water, released April 9, 2008, consolidates water-related findings spread through the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. The Executive Summary starts with: “Observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging consequences on human societies and ecosystems.” Lake Mead, key water source for southwestern US, could be dry by 2021, Science Daily, February 8, 2008, and Lake Mead Could Be Within a Few Years of Going Dry, Study Finds, New York Times, February 13, 2008. According to a new study by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography , there is a 50% chance that Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two major Colorado River impoundments that control the river’s flow and allocation between upper and lower basin states, could be dry by 2021. Based on assumptions that include current human demand, natural forces like evaporation, and moderate climate change models, the study identifies a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year from the Colorado River system. “Today, we are at or beyond the sustainable limit of the Colorado system. The alternative to reasoned solutions to this coming water crisis is a major societal and economic disruption in the desert southwest; something that will affect each of us living in the region,” the report concludes. The first study to demonstrate that observed changes in the hydrology of the West’s major river basins are likely caused by human-induced climate change was published in Science Express on January 31 (in abstract form only for free; readers can elect to purchase the full article online). The authors of the study include well known climate researchers from around the West. Based on observations of nine mountainous regions of the West for the period 1950-2000, the researchers found that up to 60% of the trends of warmer winter air temperatures, declining snowpacks, and earlier run-off can be attributed to human-caused climate change, rather than natural variability. In all but one range (the Sierra Nevada), water content of the snowpacks decreased, and in all ranges the January through March average minimum temperature increased, and peak river flows occurred earlier in the year. Highly recommended! Snowpack will melt earlier, scientist says, Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, January 24, 2008. A USGS research hydrologist finds that since 1980, the average date of snowmelt has advanced two weeks in Colorado, and that by 2100, it could come a full month earlier. Source of water for West at risk, Arizona Republic, November 26, 2007. Effects of warming on Arizona’s water supplies are profiled. "Changes in runoff are only one step away from the warmth in global warming," says Brad Udall, director of the Western Water Assessment and RMCO Steering Committee member. "Right after temperature increase, what should pop into people's mind is the question of water." The Future Is Drying Up, New York Times Magazine, October 21, 2007. An in-depth look at the effects of drought on the Colorado River basin and the 30 million people who depend on it for water supply includes a reference to RMCO Steering Committee member Brad Udall’s congressional committee testimony, “As we move forward, all water-management actions based on ‘normal’ as defined by the 20th century will increasingly turn out to be bad bets.” Highly recommended! Study points to dry, dismal future from global warming, Santa Fe New Mexican, October 23, 2007. A recent study of New Mexico’s Rio Grande basin projects millions of dollars of economic losses for farmers and stressed water supplies for cities due to drying conditions and higher temperatures. Strain on Colorado water predicted, Denver Post, August 23, 2007, and Beetles, climate change reducing water quality, supply, Steamboat Pilot, August 26, 2007. The Colorado Water Congress devotes its annual summer convention in Steamboat Springs to the effects of climate change on water supply and quality. The local media observes that the Yampa River peaked 31 days earlier than average this year, and notes the potential cumulative impacts of beetle kill, water supply changes, and water quality from warming temperatures. Steamboat Springs City Councilman Ken Brenner observes, “We’re not prepared for the consequences of climate change and extended drought. We need to quantify not only the existing (water) production and quality, but we also have to be able to anticipate reduction.”
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