News on Climate Disruption, page 2

Climate Changes in General

Report on warming offers new details, Washington Post, June 17, 2009. The U.S. Global Change Research Program releases a new report compiling work by government science agencies, providing what is called the most detailed picture yet of the United States in 2100 if nothing is done to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Jane Lubchenco, the new administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, observes, "In our back yards, climate change is happening, and it's happening now. It's not too late to act. Decisions made now will determine whether we get big changes or small ones." Highly recommended.

Climate change odds much worse than thought, Science Daily, May 20, 2009. MIT researchers working with one of the world’s most sophisticated models, estimate the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century without rapid and massive action will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago. Due to several factors from new data, the model now predicts a median probability of surface warming of 9.4°F by 2100, compared to a 2003 median projected increase of 4.3°F.

What will global warming look like? Scientists point to Australia, Los Angeles Times, April 9, 2009. Australians today are living with many of the severe impacts that scientists say may well face us here in the West: heat waves, drought, catastrophic wildfires, and wildlife extinctions in much of the country; floods and mosquito-borne illnesses in much of the rest;  and devastating socio-economic consequences nationwide. "Australia is the harbinger of change," says paleontologist and auth or Tim Flannery. “We are already starting to see it. It's tearing apart the life-support system that gives us this world." Highly recommended.

Report outlines possible effects of warming on California, Los Angeles Times, April 2, 2009. A draft Climate Action Team Report , an update of a 2006 assessment, compiles numerous research papers that include among the projections up to a fourfold increase in wildfires, reductions in precipitation and snowpack, and agricultural water being transferred to urban uses.  

Ocean expected to rise 5 feet along coastlines , San Francisco Chronicle, March 11, 2009. A Pacific Institute report projects sea level rise in California to reach five feet by 2100, putting a half million people and over $100 billion worth of property at risk of flooding.

Risks of global warming rising , Scientific American, February 27, 2009. The threshold at which the planet is at risk for widespread catastrophic events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, and destruction of unique natural features is much lower than previously thought. According to some IPCC authors, an increase of 1.8°F  from 1990 levels, rather than the previous estimate of 3.6°F, may be enough to trigger such events.

Report details climate change in Washington, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, February 11, 2009. Scientists from the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group release a report assessing impacts by the end of the century. Commissioned by the state legislature, it projects more precipitation falling as rain during the winter, earlier run-offs, late summer streamflow deficits affecting fisheries and agriculture, more wildfires and bark-beetle infestations, and summer heat waves.

Long droughts, rising seas predicted despite future CO2 curbs, Washington Post, January 27, 2009. An international team of scientists reports that greenhouse gas levels currently expected by mid-century will produce devastating long-term droughts, including in the American Southwest, and a sea-level rise that will persist for 1,000 years regardless of how well the world curbs future emissions of carbon dioxide. Their analysis shows that carbon dioxide will remain near peak levels in the atmosphere far longer than other greenhouse gases, which dissipate relatively quickly. NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon observes, "The more time that we take to make decisions about carbon dioxide, the more irreversible climate change we'll be locked into."

Climate change may carry huge price tag for California, Los Angeles Times, November 14, 2008. According to a new report by University of California, Berkeley researchers, about $2.5 trillion of real estate assets in the state are at risk from extreme weather events, sea level rise and wildfires, with a projected annual price tag of between $300 million and $3.9 billion.

Another report by the U.S. government’s Climate Change Science Program, covered by the New York Times, Washington Post, and Associated Press, details the observed and forecast effects of climate change on the nation’s land, water, biodiversity, and agricultural resources. Unlike other reports earlier in the Bush Administration, this apparently was not watered down by political appointees. Compiled by 38 leading scientists, drawing from about 1,000 studies, it highlights how human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already translated into more frequent forest fires, reduced snowpack, and increased drought, especially in the West, with more effects likely to come.

The federal government also issued a new Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States, which under federal law is supposed to be updated and issued every four years. A court order to comply with the law led to this overdue report, which mostly restates what is in last year’s reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the new federal report mentioned above. In it, the Bush administration acknowledges that heat-trapping gases "are very likely the single largest cause" of the Earth's warming. Bush advisers agree fossil fuel causes warming, Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2008.

Jet stream found to be permanently drifting north, Associated Press, April 23, 2008. Researchers find that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream has moved towards the North Pole an average of 1.25 miles a year from 1979-2001 and suspect the movement is linked to climate change. Weather patterns likely follow the shift, leading to a drier Southwest and wetter Northwest.

Human activities reshape California climate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory press release, January 17, 2008. Researchers find that a 2.1 ° F rise in average temperatures in California between 1915 and 2000 is likely caused by human-generated greenhouse gases and land use changes. The warming has been fastest in late winter and early spring.

Warming climate may prove costly for Washington state, study warns, Seattle Times, January 11, 2007. In Washington, a new study highlights the economic impacts of rising temperatures and altered snow and rainfall patterns. "The impacts we found are significant," says Bob Doppelt, director of the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative. "But we also think they're manageable."

West is warming epicenter, Denver Post, October 12, 2006. The average temperature in the West has risen 2-3 degrees F over the last 100 years, compared to a global average of 1 degree F. "The West is warming dramatically," said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona. "Things are just going to get hotter. You can bet the farm on it."  

Report: Global warming real threat to California, San Diego Union-Tribune, August 12, 2006. A new report by the State of California is summed up by Linda Adams, the state's secretary for environmental protection:  “The potential impacts of global warming are unmistakable, adding more days of deadly heat, more intense and frequent wildfires, shorter supplies of drinking water and serious public-health risks.”

A sign of things to come: Climate changes already here in Montana. The Missoulan, April 30, 2006. Over the past 50 years, the average temperature in Montana in March has increased by about 5 degrees, and Montana climate scientist Steve Running can already document the effects.

Parched New Mexico gets a taste of climate change. USA Today, February 27, 2006. "Climate scientists may debate whether severe drought in the Southwest is a sign that climate change is already here, but there is little dispute that drier, warmer conditions in the region are a taste of what life may be like if Earth's temperature continues to rise. 'The big ecological changes are really beginning ... in the West,' says Tom Swetnam of the University of Arizona.'"

National Geographic News, October 17, 2005: No Winter by 2105? New Study Offers Grim Forecast for U.S.  "'In the Southwest, if you imagine the hottest two and a half weeks of the year, you're looking at that becoming three months long."

Billings Gazette, May 17, 2005: Study blames global warming for early signs of spring. "The first signs of spring are appearing earlier in the year, and a new study from Stanford University released Monday says man-made global warming is clearly to blame."

Washington Post, February 6, 2005: Arid Arizona Points to Global Warming as Culprit. "Dramatic weather changes in the West -- whether it is Arizona's decade-long drought or this winter's torrential rains in Southern California -- have pushed some former skeptics to reevaluate their views on climate change."