Less Available Water: The Colorado River

 

Over 30 million Westerners depend on the water of the Colorado River, most of which originates as snowfall in the Rocky Mountains. The river's water goes to 2/3 of the West's largest cities -- eight of the 12 largest, 19 of the 30 largest. Many of them are also among the fastest growing cities in the country.

A study of climate change impacts in the Colorado River basin, published in January 2004, illustrates what climate change can mean to the West. The researchers used a climate model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which predicts less drastic outcomes than many other climate models – leading the researchers to call this a “best case” prediction for the Colorado River basin.

However, those predictions are hardly reassuring.

 
           
 
Climate Change Impacts in the Colorado River Basin
Predicted Changes from Historical Averages

Period

Average Temperature

Total Precipitation

Snowpack

Runoff

Water Storage

2010-2039
+ 1.8°F
-3%
-24%
-14%
-36%

2040-2069

+3.6°F
-6%
-30%
-17%
-40%
Source: Christensen, et al., "The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources in the Colorado River Basin," Climatic Change (2004). Projected changes are comparisons to actual observations from the period 1950-1999.
   
     

“What this work shows is that, even with a conservative climate model, current demands  on water resources in many parts of the West will not be met under future climate conditions – much less the demands of a larger population and a larger economy.”

T. Barrett, et al., "The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview," Climatic Change (2004).

Since 2004, others scientific studies have made projections of what could happen to Colorado River water as the climate changes. All of them project reductions, and some of the projected reductions are much more drastic than those from this earlier study. The key point, though, is that the West really cannot afford any reduction in Colorado River water.

 
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