California is not part of the Rocky Mountain region, but a recent study of likely climate-change impacts in that state predicted effects similar to those we may get here--and also illustrated how the severity of the impacts likely will depend on what actions we take to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change.
The study, by 19 scientists, looked at likely climate-change impacts using two different climate models and, for each model, two different assumptions about the level of future greenhouse gases: a lower-emission scenario if aggressive actions are taken to reduce emissions worldwide, and a higher emission scenario if emissions are allowed to increase in a business-as-usual fashion.
Under both models, climate change is predicted to have significant impacts, but the degree of the impacts depends on what we do to protect our climate.
"The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose." Katharine Hayhoe |
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Climate Change's Effects Depend on Emissions: An Illustration Predicted Effects in California in 2070-2099
Parallel Climate Model
(National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy) |
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Lower Emissions |
Higher Emissions |
Changes in Temperature |
+4° F |
+7° F |
Changes in Precipitation |
+7% |
-17% |
| Changes in Snowpack |
-29% |
-73% |
Changes in River Flows |
-7% |
-14% |
Hadley Climate Center Model |
| |
Lower Emissions |
Higher Emissions |
| Changes in Temperature |
+6°F |
+10°F |
| Changes in Precipitation |
-22% |
-30% |
| Changes in Snowpack |
-72% |
-89% |
Changes in River Flows |
-23% |
-33% |
Source:
Katharine Hayhoe , et al. "Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California," Proceedings of National Academy of Science (2004). |
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